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Dec 3, 2012
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some of that is attribute knowledge to superstorm sandy. an estimated quarter million vex were destroyed. those numbers will be out this morning. it would only say that it is speaking to, quote, interested parties. but delta air lines is involved in those sdgzs. virgin is the second largest airline at heath row. >>> and lenny dykstra will be sentenced today. he was found to have hidden and stole sports memorabilia other items that were supposed to be part of a bankruptcy filing. >>> the game of political chicken, we were looking to rise above the partisan politics and trying to get something done. david walker, ceo of the america comeback initiative, steve mcmahon, co-founder of purple strategies, you guys have been on for a while and we've talked about a lot of things. steve, just 1:30 ag ago, you made a point talking about the bush tax cuts. and i said the tax cuts have been near and dear and you said at least bush was smart enough to know that we couldn't afford them so they were sunseted. >> so they were sunseted. >> that may happen. in
some of that is attribute knowledge to superstorm sandy. an estimated quarter million vex were destroyed. those numbers will be out this morning. it would only say that it is speaking to, quote, interested parties. but delta air lines is involved in those sdgzs. virgin is the second largest airline at heath row. >>> and lenny dykstra will be sentenced today. he was found to have hidden and stole sports memorabilia other items that were supposed to be part of a bankruptcy filing....
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Dec 4, 2012
12/12
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of sandy jobless claims relative to katrina. if we don't have that chart -- there it is, great. it goes up and now we're in the down. it may pop back. but the trouble is that the big surge there is probably in the week of -- or is going to affect the week of the employment survey. >> the last week. >> and now, guys, if you have the next one back there, i don't know if you have it, you can see there what we show there is we're looking for only 80,000 jobs on friday. 95 in the private sector. that's a big jobs -- it might be hurricane related, but it could also be cliff related. there's these two things just backing up what joe said, folks, we've got enough to worry about without the stuff that we could probably fix and move on, there's enough going on. you can see that we're going to be substantially below the six-month average that we've been running there. and that shows that, you know, we were not robust to begin with, and this is why guys at the fed are concerned about things like this. if you're going 3% or 4% gdp, you have
of sandy jobless claims relative to katrina. if we don't have that chart -- there it is, great. it goes up and now we're in the down. it may pop back. but the trouble is that the big surge there is probably in the week of -- or is going to affect the week of the employment survey. >> the last week. >> and now, guys, if you have the next one back there, i don't know if you have it, you can see there what we show there is we're looking for only 80,000 jobs on friday. 95 in the private...
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Dec 6, 2012
12/12
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as soon as you get done figuring out, how much is sandy, how much is not sandy, we have to start dealing with the fiscal cliff so there's a shock behind us and a shock in front of us. so we're in limbo right now. and we're expecting a big effect from sandy in the friday number, especially in maybe the household survey, they moved the survey week back a week. because of an early thanksgiving. they do that -- so instead of it being the week of the 12th, it's the week of the 5th. >> so this number is going to tell us nothing tomorrow? > know there's going to be a lot of discussion about it. i'll stick to my guns, it's a 125 to 150 economy growth some of that could be sandy. i don't donknow if you want to k about that chart. this looks at the net effect acceptable. if 30% say it's acceptable and 20% say -- these are what we asked people. how many is that? that's five of eight different solutions. >> people say, yes, we're okay dealing with the fiscal cliff, if you raise taxes on those who make more than $250,000 and then you cap deductions, and virtually everything else is off the table. >>
as soon as you get done figuring out, how much is sandy, how much is not sandy, we have to start dealing with the fiscal cliff so there's a shock behind us and a shock in front of us. so we're in limbo right now. and we're expecting a big effect from sandy in the friday number, especially in maybe the household survey, they moved the survey week back a week. because of an early thanksgiving. they do that -- so instead of it being the week of the 12th, it's the week of the 5th. >> so this...
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Dec 10, 2012
12/12
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sandy, fiscal cliff. but as a result, the ones that fall and come down a lot, those are the ones you pick at. >> and pope benedict is launching a new application. pope to you on facebook. the application lets you listen to his words, see his pictures and receive messages of congratulations through virtual post cards. >>> all right, all right, sema? >> hewlitt packard jumping nearly 4%. carl may be interested in the company. hp facing serious issues and the stock faulling 44%. own an fast money at 5:00, we want to know if you think they can rise from the dead. >> thank so much. >>> final trades up next when we come back on "halftime." s. i d'. i have obligations. cute obligations, but obligations. i need to rethink the core of my portfolio. what i really need is sleep. introducing the ishares core, building blocks for the heart of your portfolio. find out why 9 out of 10 large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus which includes inve
sandy, fiscal cliff. but as a result, the ones that fall and come down a lot, those are the ones you pick at. >> and pope benedict is launching a new application. pope to you on facebook. the application lets you listen to his words, see his pictures and receive messages of congratulations through virtual post cards. >>> all right, all right, sema? >> hewlitt packard jumping nearly 4%. carl may be interested in the company. hp facing serious issues and the stock faulling...
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Dec 4, 2012
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. >> i don't think all it have it will be explainable by superstorm sandy. i think a lot of it is pulling back. you've seen the capital investment. >> we have to move on but i have to push back on one thing. are we talking about two different things? when we got downgraded the market went down hard. more than a trillion in value. >> but the market price. the market came right back and actually went to new highs not that long after that. once the knee jerk reaction was done. the market is being sensitized to it right now. and that's a good thing. >>> two companies that issued special dividends ahead of the fiscal cliff and if you're keeping score at home that's 103 companies thus far this quarter valued at more than $22 billion. so we see this continued parade of companies just coming out and issuing special dividends whether it's by debt, with debt, or cash on the balance sheet. >> the big one there, scott, is costco. last week when costco made the announcement, it was up 5%, almost 7% on the news. oracle moves their dividends up and the stock is flat to dow
. >> i don't think all it have it will be explainable by superstorm sandy. i think a lot of it is pulling back. you've seen the capital investment. >> we have to move on but i have to push back on one thing. are we talking about two different things? when we got downgraded the market went down hard. more than a trillion in value. >> but the market price. the market came right back and actually went to new highs not that long after that. once the knee jerk reaction was done....
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Dec 7, 2012
12/12
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now, again, back to hurricane sandy. from the commissioner's statement, the storm we saw happen on october 29th, the next pay period ended on november 12th. the way bls essentially keeps score it says workers have to be off work for the entire pay period to be counted on the negative side. on the household survey side, persons who missed work for weather-related events are counted as employed whether or not they are paid for the time off. we did have a drop in the labor force participation rate, down 0.2 to 63.6%. how did we get to 7.7% unemployment? basically the number of unemployed persons dropped more than the number of employed and there were downward trends in both those categories. lots to chew on. back to you guys. >> hampton, thank you. we are kind of scratching our heads. let's get more reaction from our panel. mark zandi and jared bernstein are here with us. mark, what do you make of this number? we've set this up as numbers were not going to be things we watched closely because of sandy. >> i'd say two things
now, again, back to hurricane sandy. from the commissioner's statement, the storm we saw happen on october 29th, the next pay period ended on november 12th. the way bls essentially keeps score it says workers have to be off work for the entire pay period to be counted on the negative side. on the household survey side, persons who missed work for weather-related events are counted as employed whether or not they are paid for the time off. we did have a drop in the labor force participation...
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Dec 10, 2012
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some of that is sandy. you can't disentangle it. i'm sure it would have been better if it weren't for the uncertainty. we saw how bad it was in the summer of '11 and it will be the same now. >> i very much agree with ian on this point, that the uncertainty is associated with the fiscal cliff is at least a percentage point on the fourth quarter. and could be more than that. it's just a lurking weight on the business sector. and if we are going to get this growth, i think we've got to have a little bit more certainty on taxes, on regulation, and the trajectory of fiscal policy going forward. >> what i hear you both saying, though, and you're talking about spending issue, and not worrying so much about that, but i also hear you saying it would be a big mistake to raise taxes. >> absolutely. yeah. >> but the top 2%, is that the least deleterious people to raise it on? >> yeah, it would be. but right now i'd prefer not to raise taxes on anybody. but if you're going to do it, then the people at the lowest propensity to consume -- >> you d
some of that is sandy. you can't disentangle it. i'm sure it would have been better if it weren't for the uncertainty. we saw how bad it was in the summer of '11 and it will be the same now. >> i very much agree with ian on this point, that the uncertainty is associated with the fiscal cliff is at least a percentage point on the fourth quarter. and could be more than that. it's just a lurking weight on the business sector. and if we are going to get this growth, i think we've got to have...
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Dec 7, 2012
12/12
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you had sandy. i mean, it may be -- the journal argued it's the least important jobs number in five years. >> i saw that. i do think one thing we can certainly say given that china seems to be stabilizing a bit, we can all discuss europe. greek situation. maybe it's off the front pages for a while. and so if we assume that the jobs picture in the u.s. is not bad, let's assume not bad, it puts even more of a focus on the fiscal cliff negotiations because it becomes even more binding one would assume in terms of good or bad for the market, for the economy. >> kernen had a good point. does strength mean the economy could handle a cliff or is it so good you wouldn't want to tamper -- >> if i wanted to create a recession, what would i do? i would raise everybody's rates. i would cut the unemployment benefit. just trying to think of a theory of how i could cause a recession. i would cut back government spending quickly. >> i would raise interest rates to 20%. >> bernanke ought to join the -- look, i think
you had sandy. i mean, it may be -- the journal argued it's the least important jobs number in five years. >> i saw that. i do think one thing we can certainly say given that china seems to be stabilizing a bit, we can all discuss europe. greek situation. maybe it's off the front pages for a while. and so if we assume that the jobs picture in the u.s. is not bad, let's assume not bad, it puts even more of a focus on the fiscal cliff negotiations because it becomes even more binding one...
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Dec 3, 2012
12/12
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particularly on the consumer side as well, because of sandy. so i think in the meantime, until we get a resolution, i've said before, i think you're going to be in a trading range. and i think into the strength of the market, you want to take some off, never bad to have some cash. but on these pullbacks, i think you want to be buying, because i actually think the economy is getting better, particularly when you look at housing, consumer, even auto and aerospace, all those data points point to 2013. >> are you buying the market on any pullback? >> i like the santa claus rally with josh and would be raising cash. i think the risk in the markets further on the down side than the up side. but when you see some real pullbacks, buy the stock if you like it. >> morgan stanley's top market watcher has been bearish all year and not ready to change his mind. adam parker joins us live. welcome back to halftime. good to see you. >> how are you, scott? >> 1167 is where you thought we would be at the end of the year. you'll be far short. why aren't you willi
particularly on the consumer side as well, because of sandy. so i think in the meantime, until we get a resolution, i've said before, i think you're going to be in a trading range. and i think into the strength of the market, you want to take some off, never bad to have some cash. but on these pullbacks, i think you want to be buying, because i actually think the economy is getting better, particularly when you look at housing, consumer, even auto and aerospace, all those data points point to...
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Dec 5, 2012
12/12
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you have fiscal cliff, you have hurricane sandy. are you optimistic about what's happening in the economy if you take out the potential shocks? >> i don't think we make any change at all. i think the job market is producing 150,000 jobs per month, that's what we've been producing since the beginning of the year, over the past year, past two years, some months we're a little lower, higher, sometimes seasonal adjustment. if you take this month's number and x out sandy, that's over 200,000. >> that will add some jobs, that's not a fair comparison. >> so 200,000 minus 60 is 150 -- >> so you're right there. >> i don't think the economy has chang chang changed deappreciably over the last year. >> well, i think coming into friday's number, we're a little -- we don't think there's 80,000 worth of impact, might be closer to 40,000 or 50,000. whatever, there's been an impact and i agree with mark's point, 1 in about 150,000 job creation in the economy and i don't know that meaningfully changes. but i would say, if anything, the bias next year
you have fiscal cliff, you have hurricane sandy. are you optimistic about what's happening in the economy if you take out the potential shocks? >> i don't think we make any change at all. i think the job market is producing 150,000 jobs per month, that's what we've been producing since the beginning of the year, over the past year, past two years, some months we're a little lower, higher, sometimes seasonal adjustment. if you take this month's number and x out sandy, that's over 200,000....
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Dec 3, 2012
12/12
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how much is blamed on sandy when it shouldn't? >> everything blamed on sandy. that's going to work for a while. once you dig into the details, wait a minute, this isn't all sandy. because the east coast is a very big part of the -- >> obviously oh, yes. >> the economy. >> everybody who has gone through sandy. >> chicago is a big part, texas, california, they weren't affected directly by sandy. so that will come back much quicker if it's going to come back. that's where you have to look, to see what the trend was beforehand. >> okay. now europe. you know, there was a little bit of a -- a confusion this morning when spain asked for a bailout. they're talking bank bailout, country bailout, new program. rates are down. i've seen many stories, if this is really going to be a positive rates being down, we have to really draw in more global investors. do you think that will happen ultimately? >> ultimately, i do think it will. any time europe gets pushed to the background, i'm kind of pleased. as long as their banking system isn't going to affect ours, i think we can
how much is blamed on sandy when it shouldn't? >> everything blamed on sandy. that's going to work for a while. once you dig into the details, wait a minute, this isn't all sandy. because the east coast is a very big part of the -- >> obviously oh, yes. >> the economy. >> everybody who has gone through sandy. >> chicago is a big part, texas, california, they weren't affected directly by sandy. so that will come back much quicker if it's going to come back. that's...
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Dec 10, 2012
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i'm worried about the sandy. you've got to keep interest in the end. insurance companies, got to keep capital free. >> i wanted to mention, we mentioned this on friday, the chinese have been aggressive, setting records in terms of merger and acquisition volume. we talked about this on friday, take a look across the borders from china, that helps the story. that $15 billion deal did get approved from the canadian government. they do own some assets in the gulf of mexico. although that is not expected to be problematic at this point. but take a look at what happened in the stocks on friday. that, after we received word there would be a statement from the canadian prime minister. that freaked a lot of risk arms out. did not have a lot of conviction here. thinking, why is it going to come out with a statement if they're approving the deal. you come out and say something if you weren't. but they did come out with a statement and indicated perhaps we won't see any more of these large deals. comp stock is up, as you might expect. >> you heard this deal will b
i'm worried about the sandy. you've got to keep interest in the end. insurance companies, got to keep capital free. >> i wanted to mention, we mentioned this on friday, the chinese have been aggressive, setting records in terms of merger and acquisition volume. we talked about this on friday, take a look across the borders from china, that helps the story. that $15 billion deal did get approved from the canadian government. they do own some assets in the gulf of mexico. although that is...